DLF's luxury presales rebound lifts HSBC target to ₹950
Luxury demand lifts DLF's quarter
DLF Limited reported presales of ₹3,800 crore for the July to September 2026 quarter, a sharp rise from ₹657 crore in the June quarter, although still 12% lower than a year earlier. The consolidated results were declared on 16 October 2026. On 19 October, HSBC kept its Buy rating on the developer and raised its target price to ₹950 from ₹920, implying upside of roughly 41%. The move follows HSBC's January 2025 target of ₹1,050, which was set on the strength of cash flows from The Dahlias in Gurugram.
The rebound was concentrated in the premium end of the market. The Aureva, a senior living project in Gurugram, sold out after its launch, and continued sales at The Dahlias and The Camellias supported the total. Analysts view the quarter as a sign that DLF's high-end product line can still generate large bookings even when the wider Gurugram housing market is slowing.
Brokerage views and key figures
Target prices across the brokerage community range from ₹740 to ₹950. Elara Securities retained its Buy rating with a sum-of-the-parts target of ₹900, implying 33% upside from the ₹675 market price on 16 October 2026. Elara had cut its target from ₹1,050 to ₹900 in June 2026 while keeping the stock at Buy. Other current ratings and targets are:
- Jefferies: Buy, target ₹830
- CLSA: Outperform, target ₹810
- JP Morgan: Overweight, target ₹800
- Nomura: target ₹740, maintained on 19 October 2026
Collections in the quarter reached about ₹2,780 crore, up 16% from the previous quarter and 4% from a year earlier. Core residential operating cash flow was ₹1,440 crore, up 30% year on year. Net cash stood at about ₹15,000 crore after a dividend outflow of ₹1,980 crore. Revenue for the quarter was ₹1,261 crore, down 23% year on year, and EBITDA was ₹23 crore against ₹284 crore a year earlier.
Presales were heavily weighted toward a few projects. CLSA estimated that the Aureva launch and its sell-out accounted for about half of the quarter's presales, while JP Morgan put Aureva at about ₹1,900 crore and continuing super-luxury sales at The Dahlias and The Camellias at a further ₹1,900 crore. Elara noted that sustenance sales at The Dahlias made up about 45% of presales. Realisations at The Dahlias are above ₹1 lakh per sq ft, and prices there rose 10% during the quarter.
The developer's scale and pipeline
DLF is India's largest listed real estate company, with a market capitalisation of about ₹1.7 trillion as of 19 October 2026. Its business combines residential development and sales with the development and leasing of commercial and retail assets, which form its annuity income. Elara estimates the rental book at roughly 50 million sq ft with occupancy above 95%, with another 27 million sq ft under development. The company's medium-term launch pipeline is about ₹58,200 crore. Its maiden Mumbai project sold out within days of launch in October 2025.
Elara values the stock at about a 30% discount to its March 2027 net asset value estimate. Management has said that the rental portfolio build-out is on track for the period from calendar 2027 to FY30.
Upcoming launches and the year ahead
DLF's near-term sales depend on its next launches. These are the Westpark Phase 2 project in Mumbai and the expansion of Magnolias Phase 2 in Gurugram. JM Financial estimates that the two launches together carry a gross development value of ₹10,000 to ₹12,000 crore. Presales for the first half of FY27 were around ₹4,500 crore, and JM Financial considers the FY27 presales guidance of ₹20,000 crore a tall ask. Business Standard has noted that the guidance will depend on the timing of the Mumbai and Gurugram launches in the second half of the year. The next set of quarterly results will show whether the luxury demand seen in the second quarter can be sustained.